ts. Think Responsibly

The Mullahs Play The Long Game

David Reavill

August 27 2024 at 01:31 pm

Barely a month ago, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu spoke before a Joint Session of Congress. The air was electric, as Netanyahu declared:"In the Middle East, Iran is virtually behind all the terrorism, all the turmoil, all the chaos, all the killing." Netanyahu's speech before a Joint Session of Congress, July 24, 2024.The assembled Representatives rose in thunderous applause. Here was a cause that all (or at least those in the Chamber that evening) could agree on. At just the time that America, under an increasingly feeble President, could show the world that it is still the indispensable country. Iran would become the target of not just Israel but also the United States.While many American citizens do not want to see War in the Middle East, US leadership is united on this issue. Or at least they have sufficient votes to pass any required legislation, providing the weapons, munitions, and other funds needed for a potential conflict.While the ovations were, no doubt, gratifying, it was the direct support of American Leadership that Netanyahu traveled to Washington to get. As Time Magazine noted, Netanyahu received unanimous support across the political spectrum. From President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris to Donald Trump, all of the American political Elite was behind Israel.With America firmly on his side, Netanyahu ordered the assassination of first Hezbollah's Senior Military Leader in Lebanon, Fuad Shukr, and then Hamas political leader and chief negotiator, Ismail Haniyeh. This one-two punch left the world stunned as the realization hit that the Middle East was on the edge of all-out War. It was presumed that both Hezbollah and Iran would immediately retaliate. Such political assassinations could not go unanswered. Ever the chess master, Netanyahu first positioned his assets, principally the Israeli Defense Force (IDF) and the formidable United States Military. Then, he lit the fuse that would plunge the region into War.The World Waited.Then, nothing.Although we've seen Hezbollah launch drones and missiles from their bases in Southern Lebanon, there's been no response at all from Iran. Strange.Doesn't Iran know that the US and Israel are ready for War? What are the Mullahs waiting for?Speculation on the internet, and I suspect Washington, are all over the board. Suggested reasons for Iran's delay include that they may need time to position recently acquired Russian antiaircraft components, the S-400s, and electronic warfare assets rumored to now be in Iran's hands. Or they may need extra training for the soldiers and technicians to operate this new equipment. Or that they're waiting for additional reconnaissance on locating Israel and American targets. Finally, Iran fears facing a formidable force such as the combined IDF and US forces.Any of these could be the reason Iran delays its response. However, a simpler explanation—thanks, Occam—may be in play here: logistics.For months now, the USS Theodore Roosevelt Aircraft Carrier has been in the Gulf of Oman. Earlier this month, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin ordered the USS Abraham Lincoln to join the Roosevelt and increase America's battle power in the region.Each Carrier Battle Group consists of the nuclear-powered Carrier itself and possible nuclear submarines, which do not require refueling. However, the rest of the associated Fleet—the fighter wing, surveillance aircraft, helicopters, and surface vessels—all require fuel (the last American nuclear-powered surface ship was retired in 1995). Additionally, personnel must eat, weapons and munitions must be replenished, and port maintenance is required for significant repairs and refits.This comes when the US Navy is not operating at maximum capacity. The first place American ships look for resupply is the Navy's Sealift Command, those ships and sailors who are the heart and soul of at-sea logistics. But just last week, the US Navy Institute reported that the Navy plans to "sideline" 17 of its most important supply vessels because it doesn't have the sailors to staff them. This is the real-world impact of recruiting goals that have been unmet for years.At the same time that the Navy faces staffing problems, logistical support from local ports is becoming problematic. The US has recently renewed its agreement with Bahrain to continue supporting the Navy's 5th Fleet. Additionally, the Sultan of Oman permits air and naval support for the Americans. Beyond those two, however, America may find it difficult to "gas up" at other Middle Eastern Ports if War breaks out with Israel, a country that few in the Middle East support.The Iranians see this. They know that America and Israel could find themselves isolated in any potential conflict. Remember that Israel is also reliant on fuel, primarily flowing through Turkey, for its own supplies.So, while the American forces in the Middle East are indeed formidable, they are vulnerable to extended logistical support. The more time spent floating around the Gulf of Oman means continuing use of fuel and other supplies. And this most likely is exactly what the Leaders in Iran are counting on.For over a thousand years, first Persia, now the Islamic Republic of Iran, has seen invaders perish in trying to cross this timeless territory's vast deserts and seas. Will the Americans be able to overcome the logistic challenges of this land? Time will tell.The Mullahs will wait. Barely a month ago, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu spoke before a Joint Session of Congress. The air was electric, as Netanyahu declared: "In the Middle East, Iran is virtually behind all the terrorism, all the turmoil, all the chaos, all the killing." Netanyahu's speech before a Joint Session of Congress, July 24, 2024. The assembled Representatives rose in thunderous applause. Here was a cause that all (or at least those in the Chamber that evening) could agree on. At just the time that America, under an increasingly feeble President, could show the world that it is still the indispensable country. Iran would become the target of not just Israel but also the United States. While many American citizens do not want to see War in the Middle East, US leadership is united on this issue. Or at least they have sufficient votes to pass any required legislation, providing the weapons, munitions, and other funds needed for a potential conflict. While the ovations were, no doubt, gratifying, it was the direct support of American Leadership that Netanyahu traveled to Washington to get. As Time Magazine noted, Netanyahu received unanimous support across the political spectrum. From President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris to Donald Trump, all of the American political Elite was behind Israel. With America firmly on his side, Netanyahu ordered the assassination of first Hezbollah's Senior Military Leader in Lebanon, Fuad Shukr, and then Hamas political leader and chief negotiator, Ismail Haniyeh. This one-two punch left the world stunned as the realization hit that the Middle East was on the edge of all-out War. It was presumed that both Hezbollah and Iran would immediately retaliate. Such political assassinations could not go unanswered. Ever the chess master, Netanyahu first positioned his assets, principally the Israeli Defense Force (IDF) and the formidable United States Military. Then, he lit the fuse that would plunge the region into War. The World Waited. Then, nothing. Although we've seen Hezbollah launch drones and missiles from their bases in Southern Lebanon, there's been no response at all from Iran. Strange. Doesn't Iran know that the US and Israel are ready for War? What are the Mullahs waiting for? Speculation on the internet, and I suspect Washington, are all over the board. Suggested reasons for Iran's delay include that they may need time to position recently acquired Russian antiaircraft components, the S-400s, and electronic warfare assets rumored to now be in Iran's hands. Or they may need extra training for the soldiers and technicians to operate this new equipment. Or that they're waiting for additional reconnaissance on locating Israel and American targets. Finally, Iran fears facing a formidable force such as the combined IDF and US forces. Any of these could be the reason Iran delays its response. However, a simpler explanation—thanks, Occam—may be in play here: logistics. For months now, the USS Theodore Roosevelt Aircraft Carrier has been in the Gulf of Oman. Earlier this month, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin ordered the USS Abraham Lincoln to join the Roosevelt and increase America's battle power in the region. Each Carrier Battle Group consists of the nuclear-powered Carrier itself and possible nuclear submarines, which do not require refueling. However, the rest of the associated Fleet—the fighter wing, surveillance aircraft, helicopters, and surface vessels—all require fuel (the last American nuclear-powered surface ship was retired in 1995). Additionally, personnel must eat, weapons and munitions must be replenished, and port maintenance is required for significant repairs and refits. This comes when the US Navy is not operating at maximum capacity. The first place American ships look for resupply is the Navy's Sealift Command, those ships and sailors who are the heart and soul of at-sea logistics. But just last week, the US Navy Institute reported that the Navy plans to "sideline" 17 of its most important supply vessels because it doesn't have the sailors to staff them. This is the real-world impact of recruiting goals that have been unmet for years. At the same time that the Navy faces staffing problems, logistical support from local ports is becoming problematic. The US has recently renewed its agreement with Bahrain to continue supporting the Navy's 5th Fleet. Additionally, the Sultan of Oman permits air and naval support for the Americans. Beyond those two, however, America may find it difficult to "gas up" at other Middle Eastern Ports if War breaks out with Israel, a country that few in the Middle East support. The Iranians see this. They know that America and Israel could find themselves isolated in any potential conflict. Remember that Israel is also reliant on fuel, primarily flowing through Turkey, for its own supplies. So, while the American forces in the Middle East are indeed formidable, they are vulnerable to extended logistical support. The more time spent floating around the Gulf of Oman means continuing use of fuel and other supplies. And this most likely is exactly what the Leaders in Iran are counting on. For over a thousand years, first Persia, now the Islamic Republic of Iran, has seen invaders perish in trying to cross this timeless territory's vast deserts and seas. Will the Americans be able to overcome the logistic challenges of this land? Time will tell. The Mullahs will wait.

Has The Ukraine War Morphed Into Something...

David Reavill

September 03 2024 at 06:35 pm

US President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin, 2021 ** Within the past month, both the United States and the Russian Republic have revised their basic Nuclear Strategy, the basis upon which each country would use Nuclear Weapons. Something big is up. President Joe Biden apparently changed the US Nuclear Posture in March, with the New York Times releasing the story on August 20. The Times reports that the Document's name is the "Nuclear Employment Guidance," but little else is revealed as this is one of the most secretive top-secret documents. Not even a digital copy of the Document is permitted. Thus, much of the information is disclosed through Defense Department or State Department Briefings. We can gather that this new Guidance provides for including both China and North Korea as potential US Targets. The most interesting aspect of this new Nuclear Strategy is that it's being published now. Under the regular review cycle, this update would come in 2026, four years after the 2022 Nuclear Employment Guidance. However, the Biden Administration must have felt they needed to update two years ahead of schedule. Something changed. Likely, that "change" came from the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. Just last week, two senior Ukrainian officials flew to Washington to request more armaments and the ability to strike Russian Territory directly. As CNN explains: The head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, Andriy Yermak, and Defense Minister Rustem Umerov will meet with US officials "to try to concretely convince the White House to lift restrictions on long-range weapons strikes on Russian territory," the lawmaker said. "They will provide a list of priority targets, without which it will be difficult to change the course of the war in Ukraine's favor." https://www.cnn.com/2024/08/28/politics/ukrainian-officials-biden-administration-russia-targets/index.html Of course, this is nothing new, as President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has been requesting this same strategy as a way to even the "playing field." He claims that Ukraine ought to have the ability to strike Russian staging areas, but he forgets that Russia does not hit Ukraine/NATO staging areas in Hungary or Poland. But be that as it may, the Kursk incursion is a sure demonstration that Ukraine's leadership is anxious to extend the battlefield into "Mother Russia." This task could only be accomplished with extensive US support, support that might necessitate tactical nuclear weapons. In fighting on its home turf, Russia would have logistical, manpower, and air superiority. Consequently, NATO and Ukraine may need to resort to short-range, close-proximity nuclear weapons. Such action would require completely revising the Nuclear Employment Strategy discussed above. The 2022 Department of Defense National Defense Strategy (the Document released to Congress and the American People) outlines the four strategic objectives: Defending the homeland, paced to the growing multi-domain threat posed by the PRC; Deterring strategic attacks against the United States, Allies, and partners; Deterring aggression while being prepared to prevail in conflict when necessary - prioritizing the PRC challenge in the Indo-Pacific region, then the Russia challenge in Europe, and; Building a resilient Joint Force and defense ecosystem. https://www.defense.gov/National-Defense-Strategy/ However, Ukraine's desire to attack Russia directly would be outside any existing protocols in either the National Defense Strategy or the Nuclear Employment Guidance and would call for immediate revision of both documents. Is that what's going on here? We don't know. It's all top-secret and not available for public debate. However, the Russians seem to be thinking along those lines. The week after the New York Times reported that the Biden Administration had revised the American Nuclear Doctrine, Russia responded that it would do the same. Speaking before a press briefing in Yemen, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said that Americans can no longer feel safe behind our vast oceans. If attacked, Russia could indeed reach the American Heartland. "This is what this American mindset comes down to. They have a mindset of a master sitting somewhere out there overseas, believing to be totally safe and secure. Lavrov continues: "We have long been hearing speculation about authorizing Ukraine to use not only the Storm Shadow missiles but also U.S.-made long-range missiles," the minister noted. "Now, all we can do is confirm once again that playing with fire is a dangerous thing for the men and women in charge of nuclear weapons across the Western world, but they are playing with matches as if they never grew up." https://www.rt.com/russia/603156-lavrov-nuclear-doctrine-children/ That the world's two premier nuclear powers would both change their Doctrine of War within days of each other, speaks volumes. Carefully couched in the legal language of the soldier and the diplomat, the world creeps closer to an atomic abyss. ** Follow me here on ThinkSpot for more stories from the ValueSide.

As the Ukraine Army Rolls Through Kursk,...

David Reavill

August 19 2024 at 09:33 pm

Ukraine Battle Tank. There can be little doubt that the Ukraine Army's lightning-fast strike deep into the Kursk Region caught the Russian defenders by surprise. The border between Ukraine and Russia stretches for nearly a thousand miles, and the Ukrainians attacked at what was likely the weakest point in the Russian defense. It was a brilliant and strategic victory for Ukraine, which has seen little to celebrate throughout the past year. In a war that is often visualized as resembling the "trench warfare" of World War I, here was a dynamic, mobile strike that more closely resembled the German mechanized Blitzkrieg of the Second World War. Top-of-the-line tanks, like the German Leopard 2s, speedy troop carriers, like the Bradley Fighting Vehicle, and mobile artillery, like the American HYMARS, were all dispatched to the Kursk Oblast. General Syrskyi and President Zelenskyy saw their opportunity, and they took it. Here was an opportunity to strike deep into Russia, just as Russia had done to them two years prior. For a regime desperately in need of good news, this was a move bound to make headlines. However, the Russians weren't the only ones caught flat-footed. Much of NATO appears not to have known about the attack; AP reports: "The move also surprised many of Ukraine's supporters at NATO and the European Union. It's unclear how extensively they were briefed ahead of the offensive, even though U.S. President Joe Biden insists that he's been kept abreast of developments since." https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-incursion-kursk-nato-eu-backers-c400bd59e5a11b5439b92b88914e95a8 Rules Of Engagement While NATO and the United States have viewed the "Kursk Incursion" as merely a counter-strike against Russian territory, there are indications that these battles have taken a new, darker turn. By all accounts, the Kursk region was lightly defended, mainly by Russian Border Guards and Police. In large measure, this accounts for the Ukrainians' decisive move, attacking with reportedly some of their best, battle-hardened troops. Ukraine quickly captured 1,000 square kilometers (382 square miles), encompassing 80 towns and villages. Once the Ukrainians had penetrated the border, they mostly encountered Russian civilians, many of whom fled. But here's where the controversy arises. Local Russians report that the Ukrainians have targeted non-combatants, civilians, as the troops surged through the countryside. Russian President Putin has taken them at their word; speaking before a meeting of government ministers, he said: Ukrainian forces "are conducting indiscriminate fire from various types of weapons, including rocket weapons, at civilian buildings, homes, ambulances." https://www.rt.com/russia/602269-putin-kursk-attempted-incursion/ Ukraine Terrorists These actions have caused Putin to label this a "terrorist action," indicating that the Russian Rules of engagement will change. The Ukrainians involved will be considered terrorists, not soldiers, and subject to the harshest treatment. While the treatment of enemy combatants has changed, it looks like the Russian Army is dusting off its "playbook" from last year's siege of Bahkmut. We wrote about the Russian strategy of encirclement (the Cauldron) as their way to neutralize the occupying force. The Russian Cauldron Where Victory Looks Like Defeat Ironically, the Ukrainians' success may become their most significant liability. By thrusting so far into Russian territory, at least 10 kilometers by most accounts, the Ukrainians must now provide the logistical support vital for any fighting force. The Ukrainians carried with them the munitions, food, and supplies needed for the initial incursion, but at some point, they would need to be re-supplied. And that won't be easy if Russia encircles their encampment. In addition to physical containment, look for Russia to put in place its vaunted electronic warfare jamming system, cutting off the Ukrainians from all outside communication. As we noted in the Battle for Bahkmut, a city now under Russian control, the Russian Battle Plan of encirclement (the Cauldron), when fully implemented, proved nearly impossible to escape. That could be the theme of this entire war, the most significant conflict of the 21st century. Although, it utilizes some of the most advanced military hardware ever seen on a battlefield: drones, missiles, electronic positioning, and surveillance satellites of today's well-equipped armies. Still, each battle seems to come down to a man-on-man struggle, pitting one soldier against another, not unlike those dreadful days a century ago in Verdun. ** Follow me here on ThinkSpot for more stories from the ValueSide.

Joe Biden Flirts With Armageddon, How Kursk...

David Reavill

August 21 2024 at 05:16 pm

President Biden reviews NATO Troops, 2022. On August 6, Ukraine forces launched what is euphemistically called an "Incursion" into Russia. An "Incursion" that was equipped, managed, and planned by United States and NATO forces. Most startling of all, this incursion, in reality, an invasion, occurred precisely on the 79th anniversary of the bombing of Hiroshima - an event that marked the beginning of the Nuclear Era. While the weapon used at Hiroshima pales in comparison to the nuclear bombs of today, it was, nonetheless, so devastating that most responsible leaders have promised never to use them again. Throughout these 79 years, a central tenant evolved: M.A.D., Mutually Assured Destruction. This concept states that neither side would initiate a nuclear confrontation because to do so would destroy both countries. Although nuclear treaties would come and go, this M.A.D. Doctrine would be followed by the world's two nuclear superpowers, Russia (formerly the Soviet Union) and the United States. Until Kursk.Regrettably, the M.A.D. The doctrine did not eliminate war completely. The latter half of the 20th Century, and now the 21st Century, have seen many regional "brush" wars. These more minor conflicts have sometimes become an opportunity for the major nuclear powers (the US and USSR, and now the Russian Federation) to square off against one another through their "Proxies" - the regional combatants. It's a new way of fighting that began less than five years after Hiroshima and the beginning of the Nuclear Era. The war between North and South Korea began in 1950. Supporting the North Korean "Proxy" were both the Soviet Union and China. The Soviets supplied North Korea with munitions, medical equipment, and their top-of-the-line MIG-15 Fighter Jets. Although China was the more visible, the Soviets were the nuclear power, having produced their first successful "A Bomb" a year before, on August 29, 1949. Korea became the first of what would become a continuing model of Proxy Wars between the two principal nuclear powers of the Soviet Union/Russia versus the United States. One of America's most decorated soldiers, General of the Army Douglass MacArthur, led the South Korean and UN/American forces. In short, this back-and-forth conflict reached a stalemate that MacArthur wanted to break with a decisive thrust into North Korean territory, something that Washington saw as much too provocative. US Leadership saw the risk of such an escalation as leading to another worldwide confrontation that would likely go nuclear. In the end, President Truman relieved MacArthur, and the principle of restrained regional war began. It was the MAD Tenant in action: Proxy Wars must not be allowed to morph into general conflicts between the two Nuclear Powers.It should come as no surprise that one of the most adamant opponents to the current Kursk Incursion has been Kim Jung Un, the leader of North Korea. Newsweek reports that Kim's spokesman said: "Washington and its allies are "wholly responsible" for the new Ukrainian offensive, which could spark "a new all-out war" in Europe ..." https://www.newsweek.com/north-korea-reacts-ukraine-incursion-russia-1940928 It's clear that the current leader of North Korea, Kim, clearly sees the dangers of escalation. The Watch Word - Restraint Throughout the intervening years, a series of "red lines" were established to prevent any direct confrontation between the US and the Russians. There were often heated debates behind closed doors in Washington to determine just how far the American military might go before antagonizing its chief opponent. For years, America refused to mine Haiphong Harbor, the chief supply route for Soviet Ships to North Vietnam. In ordinary times, cutting the supply lines of America's enemy would have been job number one. However, the United States under Presidents Kennedy and Johnson refused this strategy as it might destroy Soviet Ships. It was only at the end of the war that President Nixon finally mined Haiphong. But only after sufficient warning was given at the Paris Peace Talks. In the Soviet-Afghanistan War (War #1), it has now been reported that there were extensive arguments among the Carter Cabinet and Advisors on how far their support of the Mujahidin should go. President Carter established the American Strategy, which conformed to stringent constraints that would eliminate confrontation between the two Nuclear Powers. So, American support was limited to supplying arms and providing American advisors. This constraint was observed even under President Reagan, who came to office with the reputation of an uber War Hawk. Russia returned the "favor" by also restraining its support of the Taliban during the American Ukraine incursion that ended in November 2022. Although the specific red line sometimes changed, as when the US finally mined Haiphong Harbor, one thing remained inviolable: the two nuclear superpowers must never directly confront one another.That is until the Kursk Incursion. The Best Description of Where We Are Today The best description of where we find ourselves today was provided by United States President Joseph R. Biden Jr just five months after the Ukraine War began. Speaking before the DNC Senatorial Election Campaign Committee, Biden said: "Let me put it this way. Think about it: We have not faced the prospect of Armageddon since Kennedy and the Cuban Missile Crisis. We've got a guy I know fairly well; his name is Vladimir Putin. I spent a fair amount of time with him. He is not joking when he talks about the potential use of tactical and nuclear weapons, or biological or chemical weapons, because his military is, you might say, significantly underperforming. It's part of Russian doctrine that they will not — they will not — if the motherland is threatened, they'll use whatever force they need, including nuclear weapons. I don't think there's any such thing as an ability to easily lose a tactical nuclear weapon and not end up with Armageddon. "https://www.whitehouse.gov/?s=biden+speech+october+6+2022 Emphasis: "If the Motherland is threatened, they'll use whatever force they need, including nuclear weapons. Although some may quibble with Biden's characterization of the Russian Military's performance in Ukraine, there can be little doubt that he is right in assessing Russia's ability and willingness to use nuclear weapons. As this is written, it is being reported that Ukraine has launched its most significant Drone attack on Moscow to date. By land and air, NATO, Ukraine, and the United States are deep into Russia's "Motherland." **Follow me here on ThinkSpot for more stories from the ValueSide.**

While The World Waits For Iran's Retaliation,...

David Reavill

August 28 2024 at 11:15 am

Mullah: In Iran, the honorific title for the Muslim Clergy who lead the country. ** Barely a month ago, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu spoke before a Joint Session of Congress. The air was electric, as Netanyahu declared: “In the Middle East, Iran is virtually behind all the terrorism, all the turmoil, all the chaos, all the killing.” Netanyahu’s speech before a Joint Session of Congress, July 24, 2024. The assembled Representatives rose in thunderous applause. Here was a cause that all (or at least those in the Chamber that evening) could agree on. At just the time that America, under an increasingly feeble President, could show the world that it is still the indispensable country. Iran would become the target of not just Israel but also the United States. While many American citizens do not want to see War in the Middle East, US leadership is united on this issue. Or at least they have sufficient votes to pass any required legislation, providing the weapons, munitions, and other funds needed for a potential conflict. While the ovations were, no doubt, gratifying, it was the direct support of American Leadership that Netanyahu traveled to Washington to get. As Time Magazine noted, Netanyahu received unanimous support across the political spectrum. From President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris to Donald Trump, all of the American political Elite was behind Israel. With America firmly on his side, Netanyahu ordered the assassination of first Hezbollah’s Senior Military Leader in Lebanon, Fuad Shukr, and then Hamas political leader and chief negotiator, Ismail Haniyeh. This one-two punch left the world stunned as the realization hit that the Middle East was on the edge of all-out War. It was presumed that both Hezbollah and Iran would immediately retaliate. Such political assassinations could not go unanswered. Ever the chess master, Netanyahu first positioned his assets, principally the Israeli Defense Force (IDF) and the formidable United States Military. Then, he lit the fuse that would plunge the region into War. The World Waited. Then, nothing. Although we’ve seen Hezbollah launch drones and missiles from their bases in Southern Lebanon, there’s been no response at all from Iran. Strange. Doesn’t Iran know that the US and Israel are ready for War? What are the Mullahs waiting for? Speculation on the internet, and I suspect Washington, are all over the board. Suggested reasons for Iran’s delay include that they may need time to position recently acquired Russian antiaircraft components, the S-400s, and electronic warfare assets rumored to now be in Iran’s hands. Or they may need extra training for the soldiers and technicians to operate this new equipment. Or that they’re waiting for additional reconnaissance on locating Israel and American targets. Finally, Iran fears facing a formidable force such as the combined IDF and US forces. Any of these could be the reason Iran delays its response. However, a simpler explanation — thanks, Occam — may be in play here: logistics. For months now, the USS Theodore Roosevelt Aircraft Carrier has been in the Gulf of Oman. Earlier this month, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin ordered the USS Abraham Lincoln to join the Roosevelt and increase America’s battle power in the region. Each Carrier Battle Group consists of the nuclear-powered Carrier itself and possible nuclear submarines, which do not require refueling. However, the rest of the associated Fleet — the fighter wing, surveillance aircraft, helicopters, and surface vessels — all require fuel (the last American nuclear-powered surface ship was retired in 1995). Additionally, personnel must eat, weapons and munitions must be replenished, and port maintenance is required for significant repairs and refits. This comes when the US Navy is not operating at maximum capacity. The first place American ships look for resupply is the Navy’s Sealift Command, those ships, and sailors who are the heart and soul of at-sea logistics. But just last week, the US Navy Institute reported that the Navy plans to “sideline” 17 of its most important supply vessels because it doesn’t have the sailors to staff them. This is the real-world impact of recruiting goals that have been unmet for years. At the same time that the Navy faces staffing problems, logistical support from local ports is becoming problematic. The US has recently renewed its agreement with Bahrain to continue supporting the Navy’s 5th Fleet. Additionally, the Sultan of Oman permits air and naval support for the Americans. Beyond those two, however, America may find it difficult to “gas up” at other Middle Eastern Ports if War breaks out with Israel, a country that few in the Middle East support. The Iranians see this. They know that America and Israel could find themselves isolated in any potential conflict. Remember that Israel is also reliant on fuel, primarily flowing through Turkey, for its own supplies. So, while the American forces in the Middle East are indeed formidable, they are vulnerable to extended logistical support. The more time spent floating around the Gulf of Oman means continuing use of fuel and other supplies. And this most likely is exactly what the Leaders in Iran are counting on. For over a thousand years, first Persia, now the Islamic Republic of Iran, has seen invaders perish in trying to cross this timeless territory’s vast deserts and seas. Will the Americans be able to overcome the logistic challenges of this land? Time will tell. The Mullahs will wait. ** Follow me here on ThinkSpot for more stories from the ValueSide.

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